The Limits of Mediation: Pakistan Walks a Tightrope in the Middle East

The past year has seen Pakistan walk a delicate balancing act as Riyadh’s defense partner and Washington’s backchannel to Tehran. However, this week’s fighting between Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement and Saudi forces is putting Islamabad’s diplomatic capital to the test. As tensions escalate, Pakistan faces pressure to choose a side, a decision that could have far-reaching consequences for its economy and regional relations.

Pakistan has long walked a tightrope in its dealings with Gulf nations and Iran. Defense deals with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have been key components of Islamabad’s plans to boost its economy after years of crisis. However, these arrangements come with significant risks. By aligning itself with Riyadh, Pakistan exposes itself to Iranian ire and the potential for military conflict.

The mutual defense alliance signed between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey last month adds a new layer of complexity to Islamabad’s situation. As a signatory to this pact, Pakistan is now committed to regarding an armed attack on any one of the three countries as an attack on all. This raises questions about Islamabad’s ability to remain neutral in the event of an escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Pakistan has sought to maintain good relations with both its Gulf allies and Iran. The country’s reliance on oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea gives it a vested interest in avoiding alienation from Tehran, despite its deepening ties with the Gulf. However, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

Tensions between Iran and Pakistan can quickly escalate into deadly clashes. In 2019, Iranian missile and drone strikes on alleged militant hideouts in Pakistan’s Balochistan province prompted retaliatory attacks from Islamabad. This time around, Pakistan is seeking to prevent an escalation before it’s too late. It has delivered a Saudi warning urging Iran to rein in its Yemeni Houthi allies, and Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to discuss ways to de-escalate the situation.

However, Pakistan’s efforts may be hampered by its own limitations as a mediator. While Islamabad has been praised by Tehran for its mediation efforts, some analysts question whether Pakistan truly has the diplomatic capital or experience to deliver on its promises. The country’s reliance on the personal relationship between President Donald Trump and Field Marshal Asim Munir raises questions about the sustainability of its elevated role in regional diplomacy.

Others argue that Islamabad’s alignment with Riyadh and Washington gives it a unique value as a mediator, allowing it to relay messages in ways that a genuinely neutral party could not. However, an escalation in fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia could upend this calculus, tipping Pakistan from stakeholder into combatant.

As tensions escalate, Pakistan must be mindful of its own interests and limitations. The country’s economy is heavily reliant on defense deals with Gulf nations, but these arrangements come with significant risks. Islamabad must balance its need for economic stability with the potential costs of military conflict in the Middle East. Ultimately, Pakistan’s role as a mediator is not without its challenges. The country must walk a fine line between maintaining good relations with its Gulf allies and avoiding alienation from Iran.