The Geopolitics of Interdependence: What’s Really At Stake in Trump-Xi Summit

The upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing has been billed as a high-stakes summit, with tensions running high over trade, technology, Taiwan, and the Iran war. Beneath these surface-level squabbles lies a more profound reality: the complex web of interdependence that binds the world’s two largest economies together.

As Salvador Santino Regilme, an associate professor at Leiden University, notes, the US-China relationship is characterized by “strategic rivalry” and deep economic dependence. The United States relies heavily on China’s manufacturing capacity and low-cost production, while China depends on access to US consumers, technology, capital markets, and the stability of the dollar-centred global economy.

This paradox of interdependence has significant implications for how we understand the Trump-Xi summit. Rather than viewing it as a simple case of winner-takes-all geopolitics, both sides are attempting to navigate this complex web of mutual dependence.

The limits of economic coercion are a critical issue on the agenda. Washington is pushing for China to increase purchases of American goods, including Boeing aircraft, beef, and soya beans. However, Beijing is expected to resist these demands, instead pressing the US to ease restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports and roll back measures limiting China’s access to critical chip-making technology.

This standoff raises important questions about the limits of economic coercion in international relations. Can one side simply bully the other into submission through trade agreements? Or do both parties recognize that their economies are inextricably linked, making it difficult for either to achieve a decisive advantage?

The Iran war and the security of the Strait of Hormuz are also key issues on the agenda. Here, we see an interesting convergence of interests between the US and China. Both countries benefit from stable energy flows through the Gulf, with China being the largest buyer of Iranian oil.

Trump is likely to try to enlist Xi’s support for pressuring Iran to return to the negotiating table. However, what exactly does this mean in practical terms? Is Beijing willing to use its influence over Tehran to secure a settlement that serves US interests?

Another often-overlooked aspect of the Trump-Xi summit is the battle over rare earth refining. China controls roughly 90 percent of global rare earth refining, materials essential for semiconductors, electric vehicles, military equipment, and electronics.

This has led to a widening conflict between Washington and Beijing, with each side accusing the other of abusing its dominance in this critical sector. The implications of this conflict for the broader global economy are significant: will China’s control over rare earth refining continue to limit American technological advancements, or can the US find ways to circumvent these restrictions?

As the Trump-Xi summit unfolds, it is essential to keep a clear-eyed view of the larger picture. Beneath the surface-level squabbles lies a more profound reality: the complex web of interdependence that binds the world’s two largest economies together.

This interdependence is both a source of strength and weakness for both sides. While it allows them to coordinate their efforts on critical issues like energy security, it also limits their ability to achieve decisive advantages in trade and technology.

As we watch this drama unfold in Beijing, let us remember that the true stakes are not about who “wins” or “loses” but rather how these two superpowers navigate this complex web of mutual dependence. Will they find ways to strengthen their interdependence, creating new opportunities for cooperation and growth? Or will they continue to squabble over the spoils, risking a destabilization of the global economy?

The outcome of the Trump-Xi summit will have far-reaching implications for the world’s most powerful economies. As we wait with bated breath for the results, let us keep our eyes fixed on the deeper currents that shape this complex web of interdependence.